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Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Asia Private Credit 2026: The USD 200 Billion Pivot, Spillover Plumbing, and the Risk Indicators That Matter
Asia private credit has moved from a 5 percent slice of the global pool in 2018 to roughly 11 percent in 2025, with Singapore and Hong Kong as twin booking hubs and Apollo, Blackstone, KKR, Blue Owl, PAG, and Hillhouse as the marginal pricers. Spread compression versus broadly syndicated loans, BDC leverage in the United States, and insurance balance sheet linkages set up the 2026 risk map.
Global private credit assets under management reached approximately USD 2.1 trillion at end 2024 per Preqin and IMF GFSR October 2024, with Asia Pacific accounting for USD 124 billion, up from USD 36 billion in 2018. Singapore and Hong Kong host the bulk of regional booking, supported by the MAS Variable Capital Companies regime (1,200 pl...
The 2026 Distressed Debt Cycle: Refi Wall, CRE Stress, and CLO Reflexivity
A USD 1.6 trillion leveraged loan maturity wall, a USD 1 trillion commercial real estate refinancing cliff, and a CLO market repricing duration risk in real time define the credit cycle that opens 2026.
The 2026 vintage of corporate and commercial real estate distress is the deferred bill from 2021 to 2022 cheap money. S&P Global Ratings and Pitchbook LCD count roughly USD 1.6 trillion of US leveraged loans plus USD 800 billion of high yield bonds maturing 2026 to 2030, densest in 2027 and 2028. The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates...
The 2026 Auto-Enrollment Reset: SECURE 2.0, Plan Demographics, and the Asset Manager Stack
SECURE 2.0 Section 101 mandates auto-enrollment at 3 to 10 percent for new 401(k) and 403(b) plans starting plan year 2025, with full effect through 2026. Vanguard reports 92 percent participation under auto plans against 62 percent voluntary, target-date funds capture roughly 80 percent of new contributions, and the small-plan tail is the next coverage frontier. Asset managers, recordkeepers, and policy designers face a structural reset.
SECURE 2.0 became law on December 29, 2022 as Division T of the Consolidated Appropriations Act 2023. Section 101 requires every newly established 401(k) and 403(b) plan to automatically enroll new hires at a 3 to 10 percent default deferral in the first plan year, escalating one point annually to a 10 to 15 percent ceiling. The mandate f...