Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
India Modi 3.0: Coalition Arithmetic, Two Budgets, and the FY27 Reform Window
The BJP at 240 seats forced the first genuine NDA coalition since 1999. Two Union Budgets in eight months reset the fiscal anchor at 4.4 percent of GDP, recalibrated capex from INR 11.11 trillion to INR 11.21 trillion, and shifted the income tax threshold to INR 12 lakh, all while RBI cut Repo by 50 basis points into the food inflation overhang.
Narendra Modi returned to office on June 9, 2024, with the BJP holding 240 Lok Sabha seats, 32 short of a single-party majority and the worst Treasury bench result since 2009. The NDA coalition now depends on Chandrababu Naidu's TDP at 16 seats and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) at 12 seats, both leaders with prior records of switching sides. Finan...
Iraq Oil Fiscal 2026: The SOMO Barrel, the Sudani Wage Bill, and a Pipeline Still Closed
Federal oil exports near 3.4 million barrels per day, a wage bill above 50 percent of spending, the Ceyhan line shut three years after the ICC ruling. The 2026 question: can the tri-year framework survive sub 70 dollar Brent.
Iraq closed 2025 with federal crude exports near 3.40 million barrels per day on SOMO data and a fiscal break-even Brent the IMF estimates at 92 dollars, well above the 71 dollar 2025 average. The Iraq Turkey Pipeline has been shut thirty seven months since the March 2023 ICC award of 1.49 billion dollars against Turkey, stranding 250,000...
Saudi Arabia 2026: the Vision 2030 reset, the PIF reprioritization, and the budget arithmetic at USD 78 Brent
Nine years into Vision 2030, Riyadh is sequencing rather than retreating. PIF holds approximately USD 940 billion in assets, the 2025 budget commits SAR 1.342 trillion in expenditure, and the IMF estimates the fiscal breakeven oil price at USD 96 per barrel. The Line has been scoped down from 105 miles to 1.5 miles by 2030. The question is no longer whether the giga projects deliver in full, but which ones survive the reset.
Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 is at the nine year mark, and the official posture has shifted from maximalist scope to disciplined sequencing. The Public Investment Fund reported total assets under management of approximately USD 940 billion at end 2024, against the original 2030 target of USD 2 trillion that has effectively been deferred. Th...
Singapore After Succession: The Wong Government, the SGD NEER Frame, and the Wealth Hub Stress Test
Lawrence Wong's first electoral mandate hands the 4G a working majority but a narrower legitimacy buffer. The Wong government must defend the wealth hub, ride a 9 percent GST, and price Taiwan tail risk into the SGD NEER band.
The May 2025 general election delivered the People's Action Party a fourth-generation mandate at 65.6 percent of the popular vote and 87 of 97 seats, with the Workers' Party retaining Aljunied, Sengkang, and capturing Punggol. The result is solid by any global comparison and weaker than every PAP showing before 2011. Lawrence Wong inherit...
UK Labour Year Two: Reeves, the Fiscal Lock, and the 2026 Spending Choice
Twenty months in, Rachel Reeves has redefined the borrowing rules, raised employer National Insurance, and committed to a 100 billion pound capital programme. The arithmetic for the 2026 Budget is unforgiving and the politics are tighter still.
Keir Starmer's government enters its second full fiscal year with the choices set in October 2024 hardening into a path. The 40 billion pound revenue raise was anchored on a 1.2 percentage point employer National Insurance increase and a lower secondary threshold. The 100 billion pound capital uplift over five years was made affordable on...