Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
UK Gilt Market in 2026: BoE QT, Fiscal Trajectory, and Pension Demand
Active gilt sales, a heavier DMO remit, and a maturing LDI ecosystem are reshaping sterling rates. We map the issuance, demand, and scenario landscape for 2026 to 2028.
The 2026 gilt market sits at a delicate crossroads. The Bank of England is still running down its Asset Purchase Facility through active sales while the Debt Management Office prints a record gross remit. Pension funds, scarred by the September 2022 liability driven investing crisis, have completed buyout transitions and largely de-risked...
UK Mansion House and the Megafund Turn: DC Consolidation, LDI Memory, and the Productive Finance Bet
The November 14, 2024 Reeves Mansion House speech, the Pensions Investment Review interim report, and the Pensions Schemes Bill route a £400 billion LGPS pool consolidation and a DC megafund threshold of £25 billion. The 2022 LDI episode and a thinning gilt term premium frame the policy choice.
The UK pension system holds roughly £3 trillion of assets across defined benefit, defined contribution, and Local Government Pension Scheme schemes. The Mansion House Compact of July 10, 2023, signed by nine large DC providers, committed 5 percent of default fund AUM to unlisted equities by 2030. Chancellor Rachel Reeves's November 14, 20...