Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Canada 2025 to 2026: The Trudeau Exit, the Carney Reset, and the Trump Tariff War
Justin Trudeau resigned the Liberal leadership on January 6, 2025 after a caucus revolt and a Chrystia Freeland resignation that closed the December 16, 2024 fiscal cycle. Mark Carney, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor, replaced him as Liberal leader on March 9, 2025, was sworn in as the 24th Prime Minister on March 14, and led the Liberals to a minority government in the April 28, 2025 federal election. The macro that follows is set by the Trump tariff war, the Bank of Canada easing path, the Trans Mountain expansion barrels, and the USMCA July 2026 review.
Canada closed the Trudeau decade with the lowest end of term Liberal polling since the 1984 collapse, a Section 232 reciprocal tariff war with the second Trump administration, and a Bank of Canada policy rate cut by 100 basis points from a 5.00 percent peak to 4.00 percent through the spring of 2025. Trudeau resigned on January 6, 2025 af...
Chile 2025 to 2026 Cycle: The Boric Exit, the Right Reset, and the Copper Lithium Macro
Gabriel Boric leaves office on March 11, 2026, after a single constitutional term, two failed constitutional rewrites, a copper trough at Codelco, and a pension reform that took three years and arrived in the final stretch. The November 2025 first round and the December 2025 runoff put Jose Antonio Kast in La Moneda. The macro that follows is set by copper price, lithium royalty design, the IMF Article IV path, and migration normalization.
Chile closed the Boric administration with the lowest end of term approval since the return to democracy, two rejected constitutional drafts in twenty four months, the lowest Codelco copper output since 1998, and a National Lithium Strategy still in mid implementation. The November 16, 2025 first round produced Jose Antonio Kast of the Pa...
Prague Pivot: Babis, ANO, and Visegrad Fiscal Drift Through 2026
ANO returned to first place in the June 2024 European Parliament election with 26.1 percent, the Fiala SPOLU government lost the October 2025 Sněmovna vote, and Andrej Babis is back at the head of a coalition with the SPD and Motorists. The next 18 months will test whether a Babis cabinet, a Pavel presidency, and a Czech crown anchored to the CNB neutral rate can coexist with a Visegrad bloc realigning around Orban, Fico, and a slower Ukraine envelope.
Andrej Babis, prime minister of the Czech Republic from December 2017 to December 2021, is the dominant variable in central European politics through the 2026 budget cycle. ANO topped the June 2024 European Parliament election with 26.1 percent of the vote and 7 of 21 Czech seats, against 22.3 percent for the SPOLU coalition that anchored...
Iraq 2026: The Sudani Wage Bill, the KRG Pipeline, and a Parliament Returning to the Sadrists
The October 2025 vote returned a fragmented parliament, the Iraq Turkey Pipeline remains shut three years after the ICC award, and Brent at 70 dollars exposes a federal break-even still near 92. The 2026 question: can a new cabinet hold the dinar peg, normalize KRG salaries, and clear the wage bill without an oil price reset.
Iraq's 11th parliamentary election on October 11, 2025 produced no majority bloc, with the Coordination Framework holding the largest cluster of seats around 80, the Sadrist movement returning under a renamed list with roughly 55 seats, and the KDP and PUK splitting Kurdish representation along familiar lines. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia...
Sri Lanka After AKD: Post-IMF Debt Sustainability and the NPP Supermajority Through 2026
Anura Kumara Dissanayake won the September 21, 2024 presidential runoff with 42.3 percent and the JVP-led National People's Power coalition swept 159 of 225 parliamentary seats on November 14, 2024. The Eurobond exchange closed in December 2024, IMF EFF reviews are on track, GDP rebounded 5.5 percent in 2024, and CPI sat at 1.6 percent year on year by December 2024. The question for 2026 is whether the new sovereign curve, the China bilateral residual, and a politically untested fiscal anchor can hold.
Sri Lanka exited its 2022 default through a sequence that pairs the strongest electoral mandate in the country's post-independence history with the most front-loaded IMF Extended Fund Facility in South Asian memory. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), elected on September 21, 2024 in a second-round count after no candidate cleared 5...