Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Greek Tourism Overflow and Shipping Tax Windfall: Pricing the 2026 Crossroads
Greece's 2026 macro crossroads across tourism capacity, shipping tax, debt dynamics, and euro-area risk pricing.
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Greece 2026: The Sovereign Upgrade Arc, Tourism Cash Flow, and the Re-Equitization Trade
Athens has completed the round trip from junk to investment grade across all three majors, the Mitsotakis second term is locking in a 2.5 percent primary surplus rule, and the Recovery and Resilience Plan deadline forces a hard execution sprint into 2026.
Greece enters 2026 having retraced one of the most violent fiscal arcs in modern European history. The PSI haircut of 2012 wrote down 53.5 percent of nominal private sector claims on the sovereign, ESM and EFSF official sector loans replaced market debt at long maturities and below-market coupons, and three successive Memorandums of Under...