Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
ASEAN 2026: Tariff Whiplash, FDI Surge, and the Vietnam Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Quartet
The April 2025 reciprocal tariff schedule, the 90 day pause, and the bilateral negotiation track have rewritten the China plus one playbook. Capital is still moving, but the geography of advantage has narrowed around four ASEAN economies whose tariff exposure, FDI flows, and cluster maturity diverge sharply.
On April 2, 2025 the United States set country specific reciprocal tariffs that put Vietnam at 46 percent, Cambodia at 49 percent, Thailand at 36 percent, Indonesia at 32 percent, Malaysia at 24 percent, the Philippines at 17 percent, and Singapore at 10 percent. A 90 day pause one week later replaced the schedule with a 10 percent univer...
India Capex Spend Trajectory 2026: Government, Private, and FDI in One Frame
India's investment-to-GDP ratio is climbing back toward 34 percent, but the composition behind the headline determines whether the cycle broadens or stalls.
India's capex story in 2026 is one of three engines pulling at different speeds. Union Budget capital outlay has nearly tripled since FY20, state capex is recovering after the FY24 election lull, and central public sector enterprises are being nudged to front-load investment. Private capex is finally turning, with ASCB credit to industry ...
India PLI at Five: Modi 3.0 Capex, the Electronics Export Ramp, and the Subsidy Reckoning of 2026
Five years and roughly INR 1.97 lakh crore of approved outlay later, the Production-Linked Incentive program meets a record FY26 capex budget, a first wave of fab approvals, and a 26 percent US reciprocal tariff. We assess what worked, what did not, and where the next rupee belongs.
By the end of FY24, Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) reporting put cumulative PLI-induced investment near INR 1.4 lakh crore, production above INR 12.5 lakh crore, and exports above INR 4 lakh crore across 14 sectors. Mobile phones carry the headline: roughly 14 percent of global iPhones are now assembled in...
India's Silicon Pivot: ISM 1.0 to 2.0, Tata in Dholera, and the Modi 3.0 Compute Policy Stack
Five approved fabs and ATMP plants, INR 1.55 lakh crore committed, and a planned ISM 2.0 expansion are turning India from chip importer to assembly node. Strategos maps the projects, the binding constraints, and the 2030 capacity envelope.
India's Semiconductor Mission, launched in December 2021 with an INR 76,000 crore (USD 10 billion) outlay, has converted slow paper progress into five Cabinet-approved projects worth roughly INR 1.55 lakh crore between February 2024 and 2025, anchored by Tata Electronics' 28nm fab at Dholera in Gujarat (INR 91,000 crore with Powerchip Sem...
Korea's Memory Cycle 2026: HBM Lead, Logic Gap, Cluster Risk
SK hynix runs the HBM3e 12-Hi book at Nvidia, Samsung Memory chases qualification while its foundry yield gap widens, and the Yongin cluster meets a hard power and water ceiling.
Korea's memory complex enters 2026 with the cleanest revenue setup in a decade and the messiest strategic position in twenty years. SK hynix is the lead supplier of HBM3e 12-Hi to Nvidia for Blackwell Ultra and the Rubin ramp, holds roughly half of HBM revenue, and has a credible HBM4 roadmap pegged to 2026 risk production. Samsung Memory...
Taiwan Strait Risk Pricing 2026: What the Market Is Implying and What It Should
Cross-asset signals understate the tail. We reconcile options skew, sovereign CDS, and marine premia against PLA tempo and semiconductor concentration to recalibrate corporate hedges through 2028.
Taiwan Strait risk is the most underpriced macro tail in 2026. TWD risk reversals, TAIEX implied volatility, and Taiwan five year sovereign CDS all sit near multi year averages despite a clear escalation in PLA exercise tempo, a rising marine war risk premium for Taiwan port calls, and a global semiconductor exposure that has grown, not s...
TSMC's Three Continent Fab Ramp: Arizona, Kumamoto, Dresden, and the Cost of Geographic Diversification
Arizona Phase 1 production live, Phase 2 4 nm pulled forward, Kumamoto JASM Phase 1 in volume, Dresden ESMC ground broken, and capex per wafer above the Taiwan baseline. The geographic diversification is happening; the unit economics still favor Hsinchu and Tainan.
TSMC's overseas footprint is no longer a slide deck. Arizona Fab 21 Phase 1 began commercial 4 nm production in 2024 with first revenue in late 2024 and Apple, AMD, and Nvidia chipsets ramping through 2025. Phase 2, originally scheduled for 3 nm in 2028, was pulled into a 4 nm and 3 nm dual-node configuration with first wafer outs targete...
The CHIPS Act and the Taiwan share that went up, not down
US imports of integrated circuits from Taiwan climbed from 11 percent of the total in 2021 to 28 percent in 2024. Three years into a $52 billion reshoring push, the trade data is pointing the other way. Here is what it actually means.
The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 committed $52.7 billion to rebuilding US semiconductor manufacturing. Three and a half years in, Commerce has awarded roughly $33 billion of the $36 billion manufacturing pot. Yet US imports of integrated circuits from Taiwan have more than doubled and Taiwan's share of the US HS 8542 import basket has go...