Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Iran 2026: Pezeshkian, the Trump JCPOA-2 Track, and the Proliferation Fiscal Nexus
Tehran sits on roughly 280 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, a collapsing rial, and a reformist president whose mandate from Khamenei is narrow. Witkoff's negotiating channel is open, snapback has fired, and the next deal will be priced as much by fiscal arithmetic as by centrifuge counts.
Iran enters the second quarter of 2026 inside three converging crises that any JCPOA-2 track must price together. The IAEA February 2026 verification report records roughly 280 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. Maximum pressure sanctions reimposed in the first quarter of 2025 have cut crude exports from peaks near 1.6 million b...
Iran 2026: Oil Exports Under Sanctions, China Shadow Flows, Fiscal Arithmetic
Tehran is exporting more crude than at any point since 2018, but the gap between gross barrels lifted and net dollars repatriated has rarely been wider. We map the shadow fleet, OFAC enforcement cycles, and three scenarios for 2026 to 2027.
Iran is shipping roughly 1.65 to 1.80 million barrels per day of crude and condensate in early 2026, almost all of it to Chinese independent refiners via a shadow fleet of 350 plus tankers using ship-to-ship transfers off Malaysia, Singapore, and increasingly the Sea of Oman. Discounts to Brent have widened from 8 dollars per barrel in 20...
Iran 2026: snapback aftermath, the 60 percent stockpile, and the second maximum pressure cycle
The E3 triggered the JCPOA snapback in September 2025, restoring six United Nations Security Council resolutions on Iran. The IAEA verified 274.6 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium before camera dismantlement. Trump's NSPM 2 has reactivated maximum pressure on roughly 1.6 to 1.8 million barrels per day of Iranian crude exports flowing primarily to Chinese teapot refiners.
On September 27, 2025, snapback under United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231 paragraph 11 entered into force after the United Kingdom, France, and Germany invoked the dispute resolution mechanism on August 28. Six pre 2015 UN sanctions resolutions returned, ending the JCPOA framework de jure. The IAEA Director General report GOV/...
Iraq 2026: The Sudani Wage Bill, the KRG Pipeline, and a Parliament Returning to the Sadrists
The October 2025 vote returned a fragmented parliament, the Iraq Turkey Pipeline remains shut three years after the ICC award, and Brent at 70 dollars exposes a federal break-even still near 92. The 2026 question: can a new cabinet hold the dinar peg, normalize KRG salaries, and clear the wage bill without an oil price reset.
Iraq's 11th parliamentary election on October 11, 2025 produced no majority bloc, with the Coordination Framework holding the largest cluster of seats around 80, the Sadrist movement returning under a renamed list with roughly 55 seats, and the KDP and PUK splitting Kurdish representation along familiar lines. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia...