Industrial policy and supply chains
2026-04-26
10 minute read
15 sources
Mongolia 2026: Oyu Tolgoi underground, Tavan Tolgoi coal, and the third neighbor hedge
Oyu Tolgoi is on a glide path to 500 thousand tonnes of copper a year by 2028. Tavan Tolgoi shipped a record 26.1 million tonnes of coal in 2024, more than 90 percent of it to China. Ulaanbaatar is using the resulting fiscal space to widen the third neighbor diplomacy with Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul, while keeping the Power of Siberia 2 file open. The squeeze is real: an enlarged 126 seat parliament, a 12.0 percent Chinggis bond coupon, and one buyer for almost every export cargo.
Mongolia entered 2026 with the strongest mining cash flow profile in its history. Oyu Tolgoi began sustainable underground production on March 13, 2023, and Rio Tinto reported 169 thousand tonnes of copper in concentrate from the mine in calendar 2024. Phase ramp targets 500 thousand tonnes a year on average from 2028 to 2030, which would...