Electoral and political intelligence
2026-04-26
10 minute read
16 sources
Honduras after Castro: Security, Remittances, and the November 2025 Verdict on the Northern Triangle
Xiomara Castro inherited a narcostate, ran a Bukele lite state of emergency for three years, kept growth above 3 percent, and lost the presidency to the Nationalists on November 30, 2025. The 2026 transition test is whether the IMF program, the maquila base, and the USD 9.7 billion remittance flow survive an Asfura government with a tilted Congress.
Xiomara Castro of LIBRE took office on January 27, 2022 with a narrow congressional plurality, becoming the first woman elected president of Honduras. Through 2024 her administration ran a Bukele inflected security policy, a 36 month USD 830 million IMF Stand By plus Extended Credit Facility approved in September 2023, the unilateral repe...