Independent economic research
One PhD economist, thirteen working platforms, one signature on every page. Available as advisory.
Pass-through on US$100M of annual imports, demand elasticity of minus 1.2, sixty percent pass-through, twenty percent third-country substitution. The math runs in your browser.
Method: Cavallo, Gopinath, Itskhoki, Tang (2021); Amiti, Redding, Weinstein (2019). See the framework one-pager for the full Cavallo-Gopinath-Itskhoki decomposition with firm-by-firm currency-of-invoicing controls and HS6 scenario modeling.
Six years after the Agreement entered into force, the African Continental Free Trade Area is moving from text to transactions: the Guided Trade Initiative is widening, the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System is now live across more than sixteen central banks, and the rules of origin file for manufactured goods finally cleared.
The AfCFTA entered into force on 30 May 2019 and now organizes 54 of 55 African Union members into a single market of roughly 1.4 billion people. Execution in 2026 rests on four moving parts: the Guided Trade Initiative, which expanded from eight pilot countries in 2022 to a wider Phase 2 cohort by 2025; the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System on the Mansa platform, which crossed sixteen integrated central banks in 2025; the long-stalled rules of origin file on manufactured goods, finalized in 2024; and the AfCFTA Adjustment Fund, targeting 10 billion United States dollars to cushion revenue and supply shocks. Intra-African trade still hovers near 14 to 16 percent of total African trade against a European Union benchmark above 60 percent, but the corridors that matter for 2026 to 2028 are now visible.
The next inflection points on the firm's 2026 calendar. Each entry names what we are watching for and links to the primary source. See the full 131-event watchlist →
USTR Section 301 final remedy on China-built ship port-call fees and the SHIPS Act FY27 authorization process.
Watching for: Whether the per-port-call fee survives Federal Register comment and how Korean and Japanese yard JVs accelerate to absorb the demand pivot.
RBI Monetary Policy Committee. Repo at 6.00 percent on the eve of the meeting; food inflation glide path the swing factor.
Watching for: Whether the MPC delivers a third consecutive cut or pauses on monsoon and tariff risk.
Federal Open Market Committee policy decision and quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. Markets pricing roughly two cuts through year end on the eve of the meeting.
Watching for: Whether the SEP dot path moves down with markets or holds the policy rate above 4 percent through 2026.
MPC vote and Monetary Policy Report. UK headline CPI tracking near 3 percent; gilt market still digesting the November Budget.
Watching for: Whether the dovish minority on the MPC widens, and the gilt term premium reaction.
Post-doctoral economist at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. Operator of the production research stack behind every Deluair Consultancy engagement: trade microdata, gravity models, partial- and general-equilibrium tariff analysis, AI compute and grid economics, sovereign and corporate macro-financial risk.
Each practice is owned end-to-end: the methods, the public data, the deliverables, and the platform that productionizes the work.
Bilateral trade flows, tariff pass-through, scenario modeling.
View practice → Policy impactCausal inference, counterfactual simulation, digital twins.
View practice → AI and computeProductivity, capex returns, compute cost curves, industrial policy upside.
View practice → Economics toolingEmbedded research infrastructure, dashboards, white-label SaaS.
View practice → Macro riskRisk-layer modeling, CCAR-style stress testing, cross-channel propagation.
View practice → EnergyRenewable buildout, capacity markets, AI grid load, transition finance.
View practice →The body of work is the case for itself. Thirteen platforms across the deluair monorepo cover macro-financial risk, AI compute, energy transition, food, health, labor, trade, electoral intelligence, and causal inference.
An open macro-financial risk observatory that turns public regulatory and market data into a transparent composite risk score.
Inspect platform → AI and compute economicsA global observatory for the economics of AI and computation.
Inspect platform → Applied economics intelligenceApplied economics intelligence for governments and multilateral institutions.
Inspect platform → Energy transitionGlobal observatory for renewable capacity, emissions, and transition finance.
Inspect platform → Food and agricultureGlobal food and agriculture observatory spanning farm to fiscal policy.
Inspect platform → Health economicsGlobal health economics observatory spanning expenditure, systems, financing, and outcomes across roughly 195 countries.
Inspect platform →Diligence and value-creation analytics for funds with tariff, AI capex, or grid exposure in the portfolio.
Industry view → HyperscalersCompute economics, capex ROI, and grid feasibility analytics for the operators running the AI build cycle.
Industry view → UtilitiesLoad-growth forecasting, interconnect queue analytics, and PPA economics for the operators absorbing the AI build cycle.
Industry view → ManufacturingTariff exposure, supply-chain restructuring, and scenario analytics for industrial operators with HS-line sensitivity.
Industry view → SemisTrade-flow, capex ROI, and policy analytics for fabs, fabless designers, OSAT, equipment, and materials.
Industry view → Banks and asset managersMacro-financial risk, trade-flow analytics, and structural research for global banks, macro funds, and allocators.
Industry view →Fourteen named analytical frameworks covering critical-minerals concentration, AI capex absorption, sovereign default probability, FEOC bills of materials, tariff pass-through, compute cost curves, fiscal multipliers, energy-AI siting, industrial policy maturity, tariff substitution, sovereign restructuring, election outcome translation, cross-border payments, and climate adaptation bonds. Plus four live calculators that operationalize the methodology.
Fourteen citable working-paper one-pagers covering the firm's core analytical methods, each cross-linked to a flagship insight that applies it.
View frameworks → Live calculatorsTariff impact incidence, welfare loss, and revenue calculator. IRA FEOC cleanliness checker. Client-side, no login, no tracking.
Open tools →Six African sovereigns defaulted between 2020 and 2024. Zambia, Ghana, Chad, and Ethiopia have now closed Eurobond and bilateral deals. The pipeline runs through Egypt, Angola, Tunisia, Kenya, Mozambique, and Senegal, while 21 Sub Saharan countries are in active IMF programs and external debt service hits roughly USD 100 billion in 2025 and 2026.
Africa's external Eurobond stock peaked near USD 145 billion in 2021 and stood at roughly USD 140 billion at end 2024, per S&P Global Ratings. Six issuers defaulted across 2020 to 2024: Zambia, Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique on the Tuna Bond, and Mali on regional debt. The G20...
Africa hosts roughly 1.5 percent of global colocation capacity but is on track to triple installed megawatts by 2028, with Lagos, Nairobi, Cape Town, and Cairo absorbing the bulk of new builds and forcing fresh thinking on power, regulation, and inference latency.
African data center capacity is finally inflecting in 2026. Installed colocation power across the continent now sits near 700 megawatts, still a small share of the global 55 gigawatt market, but contracted pipelines suggest a path to roughly 1.8 gigawatts by 2028. South Africa, N...
Google Search ad revenue ran 198 billion dollars in 2024, a 12 percent gain that masks a structural threat. ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Claude are bleeding off the high intent query layer, AI Overviews are eroding publisher click through, and a federal judge has ruled the search monopoly illegal. The next two years rewrite the unit economics of every ad funded business on the internet.
Digital advertising sits at roughly 700 billion dollars globally, and roughly half of that pool routes through one query box at Mountain View. Alphabet reported 198 billion dollars in Google Search and other advertising revenue for 2024, up 12.5 percent year over year, with Q4 al...
Four years of BIS rules have built a tiered global compute regime. The October 2022 baseline, the October 2023 patch, the December 2024 HBM and tooling rules, and the January 2025 AI Diffusion Framework now shape every chip flow worth tracking. DeepSeek R1 forced the harder question. Are the controls working.
United States chip export controls have moved from a narrow performance ceiling into a full architecture for who gets to compute at frontier scale. The October 7, 2022 BIS rule set the first thresholds. October 17, 2023 closed the H800 and A800 workaround. December 2, 2024 added ...
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