Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
South Sudan 2026: oil restart, fiscal collapse, and post conflict risk
The February 2024 rupture of the Greater Nile Pipeline through war torn Sudan cut Juba's oil revenue by roughly two thirds. The 2026 restart is a stabilization wager priced against pipeline risk, election delay, and a currency that has lost more than ninety percent of its dollar value.
South Sudan entered 2026 with crude production around 150,000 barrels per day, less than half of the 2011 secession peak of 350,000 bpd, after the Sudan civil war severed exports of Dar Blend and Nile Blend through the pipeline corridor to Port Sudan. Oil financed roughly ninety percent of government revenue before the shock, and the Worl...
Yemen and Sudan in 2026: Two War Economies, One Red Sea Risk Pool
Sudan's RSF gold corridor and Yemen's Houthi shipping interdiction have fused into a single Red Sea risk perimeter that humanitarian financing alone cannot stabilize.
Sudan and Yemen now anchor the world's largest concentrated humanitarian caseload, with roughly 30 million Sudanese and 19 million Yemenis classified as in need by UN OCHA at the start of 2026. Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces under Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known a...