Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
India Adani Group: From Hindenburg to DOJ Indictment, the 2026 Fallout
Two years after the January 24, 2023 Hindenburg Research short report, the Adani Group faces a five count US Department of Justice indictment unsealed in the Eastern District of New York on November 20, 2024, alleging USD 265 million in bribes to Indian state officials. Group market capitalization, ports leverage, banking exposure, and India sovereign perception are all in play.
On November 20, 2024 the US Department of Justice Eastern District of New York unsealed a five count indictment against Gautam Adani, Sagar Adani, Vneet Jaain, and four codefendants, alleging securities fraud, securities fraud conspiracy, wire fraud conspiracy, and Foreign Corrupt Practices Act violations tied to USD 265 million in bribes...
India and China in 2026: Patrols Resume, Trade Reopens, Trust Stays Conditional
After a four year freeze that began with the Galwan clash, Delhi and Beijing have reopened the boundary, restored business visas, and resumed direct flights. The economic rewiring runs ahead of the political reset, with a record USD 85 billion bilateral deficit forcing Press Note 3 reform on the Indian side.
The India and China relationship in 2026 sits at a managed thaw rather than a strategic reset. The October 21, 2024 Ministry of External Affairs announcement that Indian and Chinese troops would resume coordinated patrolling at Demchok and Depsang, followed by the Modi and Xi meeting at the Kazan BRICS summit on October 23, 2024, ended th...
India Modi 3.0: Coalition Arithmetic, Two Budgets, and the FY27 Reform Window
The BJP at 240 seats forced the first genuine NDA coalition since 1999. Two Union Budgets in eight months reset the fiscal anchor at 4.4 percent of GDP, recalibrated capex from INR 11.11 trillion to INR 11.21 trillion, and shifted the income tax threshold to INR 12 lakh, all while RBI cut Repo by 50 basis points into the food inflation overhang.
Narendra Modi returned to office on June 9, 2024, with the BJP holding 240 Lok Sabha seats, 32 short of a single-party majority and the worst Treasury bench result since 2009. The NDA coalition now depends on Chandrababu Naidu's TDP at 16 seats and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) at 12 seats, both leaders with prior records of switching sides. Finan...
India PLI at Five: Modi 3.0 Capex, the Electronics Export Ramp, and the Subsidy Reckoning of 2026
Five years and roughly INR 1.97 lakh crore of approved outlay later, the Production-Linked Incentive program meets a record FY26 capex budget, a first wave of fab approvals, and a 26 percent US reciprocal tariff. We assess what worked, what did not, and where the next rupee belongs.
By the end of FY24, Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) reporting put cumulative PLI-induced investment near INR 1.4 lakh crore, production above INR 12.5 lakh crore, and exports above INR 4 lakh crore across 14 sectors. Mobile phones carry the headline: roughly 14 percent of global iPhones are now assembled in...
India's Silicon Pivot: ISM 1.0 to 2.0, Tata in Dholera, and the Modi 3.0 Compute Policy Stack
Five approved fabs and ATMP plants, INR 1.55 lakh crore committed, and a planned ISM 2.0 expansion are turning India from chip importer to assembly node. Strategos maps the projects, the binding constraints, and the 2030 capacity envelope.
India's Semiconductor Mission, launched in December 2021 with an INR 76,000 crore (USD 10 billion) outlay, has converted slow paper progress into five Cabinet-approved projects worth roughly INR 1.55 lakh crore between February 2024 and 2025, anchored by Tata Electronics' 28nm fab at Dholera in Gujarat (INR 91,000 crore with Powerchip Sem...