Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Global wheat 2026: Russia's 47 Mt export apex, Egypt's GASC reform, and the post Black Sea Initiative trade map
USDA's April 2026 WASDE places 2025/26 world wheat output at roughly 795 million tonnes against ending stocks of 261 million tonnes, the tightest stocks to use since 2013. Russia, India, and Australia anchor supply. Egypt and the broader MENA bloc carry the fiscal exposure.
Global wheat enters the 2026 marketing year with stocks lower than at any point since the 2012/13 crop. USDA WASDE places 2025/26 production near 795 million tonnes and ending stocks at 261 million tonnes, with the bulk of the cushion held in China, India, and Russia, none of which exports freely. Russia's 2024/25 harvest of about 82 Mt a...
H5N1 in US Dairy 2024 to 2026: A Slow-Motion Pandemic Stress Test
Two years after the first detection of H5N1 genotype B3.13 in a Texas dairy herd, the outbreak has spread to 17 states, infected at least 70 workers, killed one person, and left the United States one reassortment event away from a pandemic.
On 25 March 2024 the USDA confirmed the first detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in dairy cattle, in a Texas herd presenting with reduced milk production and lethargy. Two years later, the outbreak is the largest mammalian H5N1 event ever recorded. The B3.13 genotype has crossed into 17 states and roughly 1,070 herds, inf...