Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Pakistan Electricity Circular Debt and the IPP Renegotiation Endgame Through 2026
Capacity payments to 47 GW of contracted thermal plants now consume nearly four fifths of consumer bills, the circular debt stock sits at PKR 2.6 trillion after the FY24 drawdown, and the IMF Extended Fund Facility makes resolution a binding condition for Pakistan's macro stabilization.
Pakistan's circular debt, the unpaid arrears running from distribution companies through CPPA-G to independent power producers, fuel suppliers, and the Petroleum Division, peaked at PKR 5.3 trillion in June 2023 before easing to PKR 2.635 trillion as of June 2024 under the Power Division's Circular Debt Management Plan. The September 2024...
Pakistan 2026: The Sharif Coalition, the Military, and the Political Economy of Stabilization
The PML-N led coalition has bought macro calm through an IMF anchor, a curated judiciary, and a deepening security partnership with the army, but the political ledger underneath the fiscal one is the binding constraint on the next phase of adjustment.
Pakistan's stabilization in 2026 is a political artifact as much as a macro outcome. The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz government under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, in coalition with the Pakistan Peoples Party and supported by an army leadership whose Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir received a statutory five year extension, has carried th...
Pakistan in 2026: IMF Program Economics Under Fiscal Stress
Pakistan's 37 month Extended Fund Facility is buying breathing room, but the underlying arithmetic of debt service, energy losses, and rollover concentration leaves little margin for political slippage.
Pakistan enters the back half of 2026 with an active IMF Extended Fund Facility, gross reserves stabilized near three months of imports, and headline inflation finally inside single digits. Beneath that veneer the picture is more brittle. Debt service consumes more than half of federal revenue, the energy sector continues to leak through ...