Industrial policy
2026-04-26
11 min read
12 sources
The Space Economy in 2026: Cadence, Constellations, and Where the Margin Lives
SpaceX flew 134 Falcon orbital missions in 2024 and is targeting 170 plus in 2025. Starship is approaching operational cadence. The investible question is which fraction of the $1 trillion 2040 total addressable market estimates actually materializes by 2030, and where the value capture concentrates.
Global orbital launch attempts crossed 263 in 2024 per the FAA, with SpaceX alone responsible for 134 Falcon flights. The launch hardware market is consolidating around a single dominant operator while constellation services fragment across Starlink, Project Kuiper, and the OneWeb Eutelsat merger. Hardware costs continue to fall, software...