Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
AI Talent Compensation 2026: Where Comp Is Going Across Labs, Hyperscalers, and Finance
Frontier labs, hyperscaler ML orgs, and quant funds are converging on a narrow pool of researchers, with equity scaling on private valuations and skill premiums sharpening by specialization.
AI compensation in 2026 has decoupled from the broader software labor market. Frontier labs are paying senior research scientists total packages above five million dollars per year, with most of the value carried in private equity grants tied to valuations that have doubled in eighteen months. Hyperscaler ML organizations have responded w...
Philippines BPO Under AI Substitution: Where Labor Displacement Actually Lands
The Philippine BPO sector employs roughly 1.7 million workers and generates close to a tenth of GDP. The displacement math from large language models is real, but it is not uniform, and where it lands first determines whether Manila absorbs the shock or transmits it to the peso, the fiscal accounts, and the remittance balance.
The Philippine business process outsourcing industry sits at an inflection point. Voice agents and routine back office workflows are the most exposed to LLM substitution, while healthcare and complex IT services retain durable margins through 2028. The IBPAP roadmap targeted 2.5 million direct workers by 2028, but the curve is bending. We...
US labor market under AI substitution 2026: where it actually shows up first
Aggregate US labor data still looks healthy in early 2026, but beneath the headline numbers AI substitution is already reshaping hiring at the occupational level, with concentrated displacement in entry tier knowledge work and persistent complementarity in roles that bundle judgment, relationships, and accountability.
The 2026 US labor market presents a paradox. Unemployment hovers near 4.2 percent, participation has stabilized, and nominal wage growth still runs above 3.5 percent, yet hiring rates for early career knowledge workers have fallen sharply and posting volumes in customer support, content production, and junior software engineering have con...
Reading labor markets: persistence indicators across 60 LMICs
Labor market shocks do not dissipate at the same speed everywhere. In a sample of 60 lower and middle income countries, the half-life of an unemployment shock ranges from under 9 months to more than 7 years. That single number reorders priorities for development programs and macro forecasts.
This brief applies AR(1) persistence and half-life methodology to three labor market series across 60 lower and middle income countries using World Bank WDI and ILO ILOSTAT data from 1991 through 2024. Average AR(1) coefficient on unemployment is 0.78, on total labor force participation is 0.91, and on female labor force participation is ...