Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Ghana 2026: Cocoa Collapse, IMF Stabilization, and the Mahama Reset
Ghana exits 2025 with a halved cocoa crop, a restructured Eurobond stack, and a new Mahama administration. The 2026 question is whether disinflation, gold receipts, and ECF discipline can outrun the structural decay at COCOBOD.
Ghana entered the IMF Extended Credit Facility in May 2023 with USD 3 billion over 36 months, restructured domestic debt under the DDEP, and swapped USD 13 billion of Eurobonds in October 2024. Cocoa output collapsed from a 2020-21 peak of 1.05 million tonnes to roughly 430,000 tonnes in 2023-24 per ICCO, driven by swollen shoot virus, ga...
Senegal under Faye and Sonko: the audit, the suspension, and the LNG window
Faye took the presidency on March 24, 2024, ten days after walking out of Cap Manuel prison. A Cour des Comptes audit has since rewritten Senegal's debt, the IMF Extended Credit Facility is suspended, and GTA LNG plus Sangomar oil are the only positive variables.
Bassirou Diomaye Faye won the March 24, 2024 first round with 54.28 percent per the Direction Generale des Elections, ten days after release from Cap Manuel prison alongside Pastef leader Ousmane Sonko, who became Prime Minister. Pastef then took 130 of 165 seats in the November 17, 2024 legislatives. The Cour des Comptes audit of Septemb...