Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Iraq 2026: The Sudani Wage Bill, the KRG Pipeline, and a Parliament Returning to the Sadrists
The October 2025 vote returned a fragmented parliament, the Iraq Turkey Pipeline remains shut three years after the ICC award, and Brent at 70 dollars exposes a federal break-even still near 92. The 2026 question: can a new cabinet hold the dinar peg, normalize KRG salaries, and clear the wage bill without an oil price reset.
Iraq's 11th parliamentary election on October 11, 2025 produced no majority bloc, with the Coordination Framework holding the largest cluster of seats around 80, the Sadrist movement returning under a renamed list with roughly 55 seats, and the KDP and PUK splitting Kurdish representation along familiar lines. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia...
Iraq Oil Fiscal 2026: The SOMO Barrel, the Sudani Wage Bill, and a Pipeline Still Closed
Federal oil exports near 3.4 million barrels per day, a wage bill above 50 percent of spending, the Ceyhan line shut three years after the ICC ruling. The 2026 question: can the tri-year framework survive sub 70 dollar Brent.
Iraq closed 2025 with federal crude exports near 3.40 million barrels per day on SOMO data and a fiscal break-even Brent the IMF estimates at 92 dollars, well above the 71 dollar 2025 average. The Iraq Turkey Pipeline has been shut thirty seven months since the March 2023 ICC award of 1.49 billion dollars against Turkey, stranding 250,000...