Trade and tariff analytics
2026-04-26
11 minute read
12 sources
Aluminum smelting and tariff architecture 2026: Section 232, the LME Russia ban, and the new premium geography
Primary aluminum links trade defense, sanctions enforcement, and a power constrained smelter map. We map the 71 million tonne supply system, the Section 232 stack, the LME Russia ban, and the 2026 to 2030 corridor.
Global primary aluminum production reached roughly 71 million tonnes in 2024 (IAI), with China near 43 million tonnes against its 45 million tonne cap, the GCC near 6, India above 4, Canada at 3, and Russia at 3.7 from Rusal. The trade system around that base has been rewritten in 24 months. The LME banned Russian metal produced after Apr...