Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Green steel, hydrogen DRI, and the 2026 transition: from Hesgang to Boden, from CBAM to 45V
The blast furnace pathway still makes 70 percent of the world's steel. Hydrogen DRI plus EAF is now moving from pilot to first commercial scale in 2025 and 2026, and the policy stack of CBAM, 45V, and Innovation Fund grants determines who clears the cost gap.
Global crude steel production reached 1.85 billion tonnes in 2024 (worldsteel), with China at 1,005 Mt, India at 149 Mt, and the United States at 79 Mt. The integrated blast furnace and basic oxygen furnace (BF and BOF) route, responsible for roughly 70 percent of output, runs at 1.85 to 2.3 tonnes of carbon dioxide per tonne of crude ste...
Section 232 metals review 2026: steel, aluminum, and the next round
Eight years after Proclamations 9704 and 9705, the Section 232 framework on steel and aluminum is heading into a 2026 review that will reshape exclusions, expand product coverage, and tighten the seam with BIS export controls.
Section 232 tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum have now operated for nearly a decade, evolving from blanket measures into a patchwork of country deals, tariff rate quotas, and product exclusions. The 2026 review window opens against a backdrop of persistent global overcapacity, sharper BIS export controls on critica...
US Steel and Nippon, Closed at Last: The Golden Share, Mon Valley, and a New CFIUS Template
The USD 14.9 billion Nippon Steel acquisition of US Steel closed in August 2025 only after a Trump executive order conditioned approval on a Golden Share, USW guardrails, and roughly USD 14 billion of incremental US capex, rewriting CFIUS practice.
Nippon Steel announced its USD 14.9 billion all cash bid for US Steel on December 18, 2023, at USD 55 per share, a roughly 40 percent premium and well above the USD 7.3 billion Cleveland-Cliffs offer from Lourenco Goncalves that summer. CFIUS escalation, United Steelworkers opposition under David McCall, and a Pittsburgh coalition pushed ...