Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
AUKUS Pillar 1 Submarine Economics 2026: A368bn Across Three Yards
Australia's nuclear submarine bet collides with a US shipyard throughput gap, a 20,000 person workforce mountain, and federal opposition that survived the Albanese era.
Australia's optimal pathway to a sovereign nuclear powered submarine fleet now carries a cumulative cost envelope of A368 billion through 2055, the largest single defense acquisition in Australian history. Phase 1 imports three to five Virginia class boats from US production lines starting in the early 2030s. Phase 2 builds the SSN-AUKUS ...
The American Carbon Border: Foreign Pollution Fee Act in 2026
Cassidy and Graham have resurrected the Foreign Pollution Fee Act with bipartisan momentum. The architecture, partner tiers, and CBO scoring now define the front edge of US trade and climate policy.
Senator Bill Cassidy reintroduced the Foreign Pollution Fee Act (S.1325) in April 2025 with Lindsey Graham as lead Republican coauthor and a small bipartisan caucus drawn from manufacturing belt Democrats. The bill is a partner tier carbon border adjustment, not a domestic carbon price: imports of steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizer, glas...
US Regional Banking 2026: Consolidation, Basel Endgame, and the CRE Wall
Three years after Silicon Valley Bank, the regional bank franchise has stabilized, the Capital One and Discover deal closed, and the Basel III Endgame final rule is law. The unfinished work is commercial real estate.
The US regional banking system enters 2026 in a different shape than the one that broke in March 2023. Capital One closed its 35 billion dollar all-stock acquisition of Discover in May 2025, the OCC and the Federal Reserve approved the deal with community reinvestment conditions, and the Basel III Endgame final rule was issued in May 2025...