Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Bangladesh 2026: The Yunus Interim, Fiscal Stress, and the Banking Cleanup
Sheikh Hasina is gone, an interim council under Muhammad Yunus is rewriting the rules, and the macro file sits on a knife edge of single-digit reserves cover, double-digit inflation, and a banking system whose worst exposures were hidden for a decade.
The July 2024 uprising ended fifteen years of Awami League rule and installed a Yunus-led interim government whose mandate runs from constitutional reform to bank rescue to an election expected between December 2025 and June 2026. The IMF Extended Fund Facility worth USD 4.7 billion is intact and now larger by augmentation, foreign reserv...
India 2026: IndusInd's Derivatives Hole, AT-1 Risk Repricing, and Private Bank Stress
A March 2025 derivatives accounting shock at IndusInd Bank, layered over an unfinished HDFC merger digestion, an NBFC microfinance correction, and post Yes Bank and post Credit Suisse memory in the AT-1 market, defines the Indian private banking risk surface through 2026.
On March 10, 2025, IndusInd Bank disclosed an internal review that flagged discrepancies in the accounting of internal derivative trades against its foreign currency borrowings and deposits, with a one time post tax impact estimated at roughly INR 1,979 crore, around 2.35 percent of the bank's December 2024 net worth. The stock fell about...
Switzerland 2026: UBS After Credit Suisse, Russian Asset Gridlock, and the Limits of Neutrality
The forced Credit Suisse rescue closed one crisis and opened a slower one. UBS now carries a balance sheet larger than Swiss GDP, the Federal Council is rewriting capital and resolution rules, the Russian asset freeze has stalled at CHF 7.5 billion, and Singapore is taking share at the top of the wealth pyramid.
Three years after the March 2023 forced merger, UBS Group AG sits at the center of Swiss macro-financial risk. The transaction price of CHF 3 billion, the CHF 9 billion federal loss-protection guarantee, the CHF 250 billion liquidity backstop, and the controversial writedown of CHF 16 billion of Credit Suisse Additional Tier 1 bonds reset...
US Regional Banking 2026: Consolidation, Basel Endgame, and the CRE Wall
Three years after Silicon Valley Bank, the regional bank franchise has stabilized, the Capital One and Discover deal closed, and the Basel III Endgame final rule is law. The unfinished work is commercial real estate.
The US regional banking system enters 2026 in a different shape than the one that broke in March 2023. Capital One closed its 35 billion dollar all-stock acquisition of Discover in May 2025, the OCC and the Federal Reserve approved the deal with community reinvestment conditions, and the Basel III Endgame final rule was issued in May 2025...