Macro & Financial Risk
2026-04-26
11 minute read
13 sources
The 2026 Distressed Debt Cycle: Refi Wall, CRE Stress, and CLO Reflexivity
A USD 1.6 trillion leveraged loan maturity wall, a USD 1 trillion commercial real estate refinancing cliff, and a CLO market repricing duration risk in real time define the credit cycle that opens 2026.
The 2026 vintage of corporate and commercial real estate distress is the deferred bill from 2021 to 2022 cheap money. S&P Global Ratings and Pitchbook LCD count roughly USD 1.6 trillion of US leveraged loans plus USD 800 billion of high yield bonds maturing 2026 to 2030, densest in 2027 and 2028. The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates...