Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
South Africa's Government of National Unity Under Stress: MK's Rise and the Road to 2029
Twenty two months after the African National Congress fell below 50 percent for the first time since 1994, the ten party Government of National Unity has held together on the budget vote and broken on signature legislation. The MK Party has displaced the Economic Freedom Fighters as the leading opposition voice, KwaZulu Natal sits outside the GNU envelope, and the 2029 succession question has already begun to reorder the cabinet.
On May 29, 2024, the African National Congress recorded 40.18 percent of the National Assembly vote, its first sub majority result since 1994, returning 159 of 400 seats. The Democratic Alliance held second place at 21.81 percent (87 seats), the Umkhonto we Sizwe Party led by former President Jacob Zuma took 14.58 percent (58 seats) on it...
South Africa 2026: the GNU power deal, Eskom unbundling, and the second draft of the Just Energy Transition
After 332 days of loadshedding in 2023, the grid stabilized through 2024 and the African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1994. Cyril Ramaphosa's Government of National Unity now has to ratify the National Transmission Company, restructure Eskom debt, and convert USD 11.6 billion of climate finance pledges into hard megawatts.
South Africa entered 2026 with the most consequential political and electricity sector reset since 1994. The May 29, 2024 election delivered the African National Congress 40.18 percent, the Democratic Alliance 21.81 percent, the new MK Party 14.58 percent, and the Economic Freedom Fighters 9.52 percent, ending 30 years of single party rul...