Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
The 2026 Grid Capex Supercycle: Wires, Transformers, and the Cost of Connection
US transmission and distribution capex has tripled in a decade, EU TYNDP commits EUR 600 billion through 2034, and the binding constraint has moved from generation siting to transformers, conductor steel, and an interconnection queue measured in years.
Investor-owned utilities in the United States will spend more than USD 170 billion on transmission and distribution in 2026, up from a roughly USD 50 billion average across the early 2010s, according to the EEI Annual Capex Survey tracker. The drivers are a measurable step change in data center load, slow but real industrial reshoring, we...
PJM capacity market in 2026: what the next auction is telling us
After the 2025-26 delivery year auction shocked the market with a more than ninefold price jump, the upcoming PJM capacity auctions will determine whether the largest U.S. power market can reconcile data center demand with a thinning generation stack.
PJM Interconnection runs the Reliability Pricing Model, a forward capacity construct that procures resource adequacy three years ahead for 65 million customers across 13 states and the District of Columbia. The July 2024 base residual auction for delivery year 2025-26 cleared at $269.92 per megawatt-day, roughly nine times the prior year,...
AI capex met the grid: when the megawatt curve breaks
Hyperscaler capital spending crossed 500 billion dollars across 2025 and 2026 while the average US interconnection wait sits above 4 years. The constraint is no longer chips. It is megawatts on a calendar.
AI infrastructure capex has cleared 500 billion dollars across 2025 and 2026 between the four hyperscalers, NVIDIA, Oracle, and the new wave of neoclouds. The chips are arriving. The grid is not. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab puts the active US interconnection queue above 2,600 gigawatts, with median wait times above 4 years and rising. ...