Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Mozambique 2026: Frelimo's contested mandate, the Cabo Delgado stabilization, and the LNG restart
Daniel Chapo's Frelimo continuity rests on a CNE result the streets do not believe, a March 2025 reconciliation with Venancio Mondlane, a Rwandan force holding Cabo Delgado, and a TotalEnergies LNG restart that separates fiscal solvency from a Tuna Bond replay.
Mozambique's October 9, 2024 general election produced the most contested result since multiparty politics began in 1994. The Comissao Nacional de Eleicoes proclaimed Frelimo's Daniel Chapo at 70.7 percent against Venancio Mondlane (Podemos) at 20.3 percent, while the Centro de Integridade Publica parallel tally and the Mais Integridade c...
Tanzania LNG and the East African Gas Decade
The May 2024 Tanzania LNG Host Government Agreement restarted a decade of stalled progress at Lindi, but the USD 42 billion FID has slipped into 2026 and 2027. Mozambique is restarting in parallel, and East African gas is shifting from option value to physical supply.
East Africa is shifting from stranded gas headlines to two anchor liquefaction complexes under active development. Tanzania signed the Host Government Agreement at State House in May 2024 with Equinor, Shell, and TPDC, ending a decade of stalled negotiation under Magufuli era resource nationalism. The integrated USD 42 billion Lindi LNG p...