Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
The AI advertising shock: how generative search is rewiring the 700 billion dollar attention economy
Google Search ad revenue ran 198 billion dollars in 2024, a 12 percent gain that masks a structural threat. ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Claude are bleeding off the high intent query layer, AI Overviews are eroding publisher click through, and a federal judge has ruled the search monopoly illegal. The next two years rewrite the unit economics of every ad funded business on the internet.
Digital advertising sits at roughly 700 billion dollars globally, and roughly half of that pool routes through one query box at Mountain View. Alphabet reported 198 billion dollars in Google Search and other advertising revenue for 2024, up 12.5 percent year over year, with Q4 alone at 54 billion. Yet three forces are converging on that n...
Big Tech Antitrust 2026: From Liability to Remedy
Five active US monopolization cases, EU DMA enforcement entering year two, and a global remedy convergence around interoperability mean the operative question is no longer whether platforms will be constrained but how the constraints reprice equity, M&A, and capex.
The 2024 and 2025 dockets converted a decade of platform competition theory into operative law. Judge Amit Mehta's August 2024 liability ruling in United States v. Google held that Google's exclusive default search agreements with Apple, Mozilla, and Android OEMs violated Section 2 of the Sherman Act, 15 USC 2, and the April 2025 remedies...
US healthcare private equity rollup at the antitrust inflection: physician practices, hospital chapter 11, and the 2026 refi wall
PE healthcare deal value has settled into the 80 to 100 billion dollar a year band after the 2021 peak, even as Envision and Steward have proven the LBO model can break, and the FTC, DOJ, and a growing list of state attorneys general are now writing rules around physician rollups.
Private equity ownership in US healthcare reached an inflection point between 2023 and 2026. Pitchbook tallied roughly 1,049 PE healthcare deals in 2024 with disclosed value near 115 billion dollars, well below the 2021 peak. KKR backed Envision Healthcare filed for chapter 11 in May 2023, wiping out about 7 billion dollars of equity. Cer...