Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
PJM capacity market in 2026: what the next auction is telling us
After the 2025-26 delivery year auction shocked the market with a more than ninefold price jump, the upcoming PJM capacity auctions will determine whether the largest U.S. power market can reconcile data center demand with a thinning generation stack.
PJM Interconnection runs the Reliability Pricing Model, a forward capacity construct that procures resource adequacy three years ahead for 65 million customers across 13 states and the District of Columbia. The July 2024 base residual auction for delivery year 2025-26 cleared at $269.92 per megawatt-day, roughly nine times the prior year,...
The grid wakes up: AI demand, FERC 1920, and the PJM, MISO interconnection cliff
After two decades of flat US electricity demand, AI driven data center load is forcing a transmission and capacity build that the queue, the auctions, and the courts were not designed to deliver. The 2026 to 2030 window is where the gap closes or the bills break.
US electricity demand is growing again. The Energy Information Administration's Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for 2025 projects retail sales growth of roughly 2 percent year on year, against a 2014 to 2023 average closer to 0.4 percent. The PJM 2025 to 2026 capacity auction cleared at 14.7 billion dollars, up from 2.2 billion the year ...