Geoeconomic and policy analysis
2026-04-26
10 minute read
12 sources
Mexico's Security Drag: What Cartel Economics Cost the Bajio, Nearshoring, and the IEEPA Negotiation
Cartel-related extortion, fuel theft, avocado mafia, and intimidation now cost Mexican GDP a documented 2.0 to 4.0 percent per year. Sheinbaum's security strategy and Trump's IEEPA fentanyl framing have repriced the nearshoring premium.
Mexico's organized crime economy is no longer a public-safety question alone. INEGI's 2024 National Survey of Victimization and Public Safety Perception (ENVIPE) puts the cost of crime to Mexican households at MXN 274 billion in 2023, equivalent to 1.45 percent of GDP. Banxico, IMF Article IV Mexico, and CIDE working papers separately est...