Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Haiti Under Gang Rule, Kenya MSS, and the Failed Stabilisation Trade
Port-au-Prince has fallen to roughly 80 percent gang control, the Kenya led Multinational Security Support mission stalled at about 1,300 personnel against a 2,500 ceiling, and humanitarian collapse now defines policy choice across CARICOM, the OAS, and the United States.
Haiti's 2024 to 2026 trajectory describes the worst Western Hemisphere security collapse since the Cold War. The Viv Ansanm gang coalition led by Jimmy Cherizier (Barbecue) launched a coordinated offensive in March 2024, seized the National Penitentiary, and forced Prime Minister Ariel Henry to announce resignation on March 11, 2024. A ni...
Kenya health financing 2026: SHIF rollout, fiscal arithmetic, donor cliff
The Social Health Insurance Fund inherits NHIF's debts and Kenya's universal coverage ambitions just as PEPFAR, Global Fund, and Gavi rewrite the rules of co-financing. The arithmetic is brutal, but tractable.
Kenya replaced the National Hospital Insurance Fund with the Social Health Insurance Fund in October 2024, anchoring universal coverage on a 2.75 percent salary deduction and a means tested contribution for informal workers. Eighteen months later, enrollment has climbed past 22 million principal members, but only a fraction are paying. Pr...
Kenya After the Finance Bill: Gen Z Veto, Ruto Reset, and the Macroeconomic Adjustment
The June 2024 Finance Bill protests forced President Ruto to withdraw a KES 346 billion tax package, reshape the cabinet, and reopen a fiscal hole that the IMF Extended Fund Facility, a USD 1.5 billion Eurobond at 10.375 percent, and a CBK easing cycle from 13.00 to 11.25 percent have only partially closed.
Between June 18 and June 25, 2024 a self organized Gen Z movement turned the Finance Bill 2024 into a constitutional crisis. Parliament was breached on June 25, the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights logged at least 60 deaths, and on June 26 William Ruto withdrew the bill, vetoing his own KES 346.7 billion revenue plan. The fiscal ...
Kenya After the Bill: Ruto, the Gen Z Revolt, and the IMF Reset
After Gen Z protesters stormed Parliament and forced withdrawal of the Finance Bill 2024, the Ruto administration is governing through a renegotiated IMF program, a narrower Finance Act 2025, and cancelled Adani concessions, betting that a softer anchor and stronger shilling buy room to 2027.
On June 25, 2024, protesters breached the Kenyan Parliament after the National Assembly passed the Finance Bill 2024. President Ruto withdrew it on June 26 and dismissed almost the entire Cabinet on July 11. The roughly 346 billion shilling hole was filled through a supplementary budget and a renegotiated IMF EFF and ECF totaling about 3....