Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Egypt and Eastern Mediterranean Gas: From Exporter to Importer
Zohr's decline, Israel's pipeline lifeline, and idle Idku and Damietta trains have flipped Egypt from regional aggregator to FSRU-dependent importer. The 2026 question is whether Cairo can stabilize before another summer of load shedding.
Egypt's gas system has reversed in three years. Zohr, the field that lifted Egypt to net exporter status in 2018, has fallen from a 2019 peak of roughly 75 bcm per year to about 50 bcm in 2025 as reservoir pressure declined faster than Eni and EGAS modeled. Idku and Damietta LNG trains, which lifted 8 to 9 bcm of LNG per year through 2022...
Israel 2026: The Fiscal-Political Reset After Gaza, Lebanon, and the Iran Strikes
The Bank of Israel pegs cumulative direct war costs near 250 billion shekels, the deficit ran at 6.9 percent of GDP in 2024, and three rating agencies have downgraded Israeli sovereign credit. The 2026 question is whether the macro stabilization holds while reconstruction, settlement spending, and the legal cases at The Hague run in parallel.
Israel ended its multi-front war cycle with a January 2025 Gaza ceasefire and a November 2024 Lebanon ceasefire, after roughly fifteen months of combat that mobilized 360,000 reservists at peak, drove GDP down 19.4 percent annualized in the fourth quarter of 2023, and forced the central government deficit to 6.9 percent of GDP in 2024. Th...
Israel Defense Tech After 2024: Unit 8200, Primes, and the VC Cycle
Israeli defense exports hit a record 14.8 billion dollars in 2024 even as the venture economy absorbed a reservist drag and a funding compression. We map the dual-use overlap between Unit 8200 alumni founders and the listed primes, and trace the implications for the 2026 to 2027 capital cycle.
Israel Ministry of Defense reported defense export contracts of 14.8 billion dollars in 2024, up 13 percent on 2023 and double the 2020 baseline, with Europe absorbing 54 percent of the total as NATO members rebuilt air defense, loitering munitions, and ISR stocks. Behind the prime contractor headlines (Elbit, Rafael, IAI) sits a denser e...