Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Apple in 2026: India at Seventeen Percent, Vietnam Adding Modules, China Still the Anchor
Apple is rewiring the largest consumer hardware supply chain in history around a CN+1+2 framework, with India absorbing iPhone share, Vietnam absorbing AirPods and Mac, and China still holding the engineering depth that no other geography can replicate inside three years.
Apple's manufacturing footprint in 2026 sits at an inflection point. India produced an estimated 17 to 22 percent of global iPhones in fiscal year 2025, with Foxconn Sriperumbudur, Tata Karnataka (the former Wistron and Pegatron Chennai plants), and Foxconn Hyderabad anchoring the buildout. Vietnam now hosts the bulk of AirPods, a growing...
Vietnam Apparel Substitution Post China Decoupling: The Limits of the Easy Story
Vietnam now ships more knit and woven apparel to the United States than at any point in its history, but the value chain still runs through Chinese mills, and the substitution narrative buckles under rules of origin, port congestion, and FDI absorption ceilings.
The dominant story of the 2020s decoupling cycle is that apparel sourcing has migrated decisively from China to Vietnam. The headline import shares support the claim, but the BACI HS 61 and 62 panel, Vietnamese fabric input data, and on the ground capacity diagnostics tell a more layered story. Vietnam captured assembly volume, not the up...