Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Gaza 2026: Ceasefire Phasing, Damage Accounting, and the Donor Architecture That Refuses to Form
The World Bank, UN, and EU interim damage assessment of February 2025 priced Gaza physical damage at 53 to 83 billion dollars across a ten to fifteen year reconstruction horizon, against pledges that have not crossed 6 billion in firm commitments. The January 2025 ceasefire collapsed in March 2025, the revised arrangement of Q1 2026 carries the same architecture, and the donor coordination structure remains stuck on a Palestinian governance question that no party has resolved.
The Gaza war ledger after eighteen months of combat is now legible. The Gaza Ministry of Health reported 50,021 Palestinian dead through March 2025, against 1,200 Israeli killed on 7 October 2023 and 405 IDF killed in Gaza ground operations through end 2024. UNOSAT satellite damage analysis identified roughly 70 percent of structures in t...
Lebanon 2026: post Hezbollah equilibrium, the Aoun and Salam reform window, and the IMF program that has to clear
The 2024 Israel war degraded Hezbollah more deeply than any episode since 1982, and Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam now hold a reform mandate the Lebanese state has not enjoyed in two decades. The IMF Staff Level Agreement track, the World Bank reconstruction envelope, and the LAF deployment south of the Litani are the three load bearing files. None of them is on glide path.
Hezbollah lost an estimated 5,000 fighters, its senior military council, and its Syrian land bridge between September 2024 and the November 27, 2024 ceasefire. President Joseph Aoun, the former LAF commander, was elected on January 9, 2025 after 26 months of presidential vacuum. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, the outgoing ICJ president, form...