Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Australia 2026: Housing Crunch, RBA Easing, and the Albanese Second Term
A re-elected Labor government, a slow RBA pivot, and a structurally undersupplied housing market frame the Australian macro-financial outlook through 2028.
Australia enters 2026 with the worst housing affordability on record, an RBA cash rate that has eased from a 4.35 percent peak to 3.85 percent in stages, and a Labor government returned with an enlarged majority on May 3, 2025. Albanese's second-term agenda combines supply-side commitments (1.2 million new homes by 2029), demand-side refo...
Australia 2026: Iron Ore Margins, the RBA Pivot, and the Housing Question
Iron ore prices have rolled off their long term average, lithium is in plant level retreat, the Reserve Bank is cutting into a still tight labor market, and a Sydney median above 1.6 million dollars is rewriting the political contract between retirees and renters.
Australia enters 2026 with two divergent stories. Iron ore on the Singapore Exchange platform is trading at 90 to 110 USD per tonne 62 percent Fe FOB China against a 120 USD long term average, while lithium spodumene operators have placed Greenbushes, Wodgina, Mt Holland, and the IGO Cosmos asset on care, curtailment, or production guidan...
Canada Housing 2026: Immigration Reset, Renewal Cliff, and the BoC Pivot
How Ottawa's population brake, a wave of five-year mortgage resets, and a measured Bank of Canada easing cycle are reshaping the macro-financial outlook for Canadian housing through 2028.
Canada enters 2026 with three forces colliding inside its housing market. The federal Immigration Levels Plan that took effect in 2025 cut permanent resident targets and, for the first time, set explicit ceilings on temporary residents, draining roughly a million people of demand from rental and ownership pipelines by 2027. Simultaneously...
Spain 2026: The Housing and Tourism Vise on a Minority Government
Spain is the euro area growth leader, yet rents in Madrid and Barcelona are running 13 percent above last year, the Vivienda Law's rent caps have been blocked across two thirds of the territory, and Junts per Catalunya has pulled the plug on Sanchez's working majority.
Spain closed 2024 with real GDP growth of 3.2 percent, against 0.5 percent for the euro area, 94 million international tourist arrivals, and a foreign-born driven population gain of 1.1 million. The headline is enviable. Underneath, the Banco de Espana IPVR shows house prices up 11 percent year on year, Idealista records rent growth of 13...