Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Defense M&A in 2026: Primes Consolidate, Drones Reprice, Tier-2 Roll-Ups Compound
NATO 2 percent compliance, the Sondervermoegen, and a USD 2.71 trillion global defense outlay are pulling capital into munitions, autonomy, space, and cyber faster than the prime base can absorb it. The 2026 deal map shows three distinct games playing out at once.
Global military spending crossed USD 2.71 trillion in 2024 according to SIPRI, the steepest year on year jump since the end of the Cold War, and 2025 print is tracking above USD 2.9 trillion on Janes and IISS preliminary data. NATO recorded 23 of 32 allies meeting the 2 percent of GDP guideline in 2024, against 11 in 2023 and 3 in 2014. G...
India Capex Spend Trajectory 2026: Government, Private, and FDI in One Frame
India's investment-to-GDP ratio is climbing back toward 34 percent, but the composition behind the headline determines whether the cycle broadens or stalls.
India's capex story in 2026 is one of three engines pulling at different speeds. Union Budget capital outlay has nearly tripled since FY20, state capex is recovering after the FY24 election lull, and central public sector enterprises are being nudged to front-load investment. Private capex is finally turning, with ASCB credit to industry ...
India PLI at Five: Modi 3.0 Capex, the Electronics Export Ramp, and the Subsidy Reckoning of 2026
Five years and roughly INR 1.97 lakh crore of approved outlay later, the Production-Linked Incentive program meets a record FY26 capex budget, a first wave of fab approvals, and a 26 percent US reciprocal tariff. We assess what worked, what did not, and where the next rupee belongs.
By the end of FY24, Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) reporting put cumulative PLI-induced investment near INR 1.4 lakh crore, production above INR 12.5 lakh crore, and exports above INR 4 lakh crore across 14 sectors. Mobile phones carry the headline: roughly 14 percent of global iPhones are now assembled in...
US shale 2026: capital discipline, the Permian endgame, and the OPEC+ price ceiling
American light tight oil production touched 13.4 million barrels per day in December 2024 and the EIA STEO projects 14.0 mbd in 2026. The growth case rests on the Permian, on a smaller and more productive rig fleet, and on the willingness of consolidated operators to keep returning cash rather than chase volume. Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut unwind through September 2026 puts a soft ceiling on WTI in the mid USD 60s, exactly where new well economics break.
US crude output set a record at 13.4 mbd in December 2024 (EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly), with the Permian Basin alone supplying about 6.4 mbd or roughly 48 percent of national volume. The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (March 2025) projects 13.6 mbd in 2025 and 14.0 mbd in 2026. Production grew on a falling rig count: Baker Hughes registe...
The 3.2x compute curve: what GB200 actually changes about training ROI
NVIDIA says 4x. A CFO needs the number closer to 3.2x, and only above 55 percent utilization.
NVIDIA positioned GB200 NVL72 as a 4x training improvement over H100. On a workload-weighted, all-in-cost basis the number is closer to 3.2x, and only if sustained utilization clears a 55 to 60 percent threshold. This brief unpacks the curve, where the gains come from in hardware terms, and the three places the ROI tends to break in real ...