Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Australia and Indonesia 2026: nickel, IA-CEPA, and the Prabowo downstream bet
How Canberra and Jakarta are stitching together a critical minerals corridor under IA-CEPA, the 2024 comprehensive partnership, and the Prabowo 8 percent growth program.
Australia and Indonesia entered 2026 with the deepest formal trade and security architecture in the relationship's history, and a structural complementarity in critical minerals that neither government had fully priced. IA-CEPA passed its fifth anniversary in July 2025, the elevation to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and the August...
Seabed Mining and the International Seabed Authority 2026: Stalled Code, Bypass Politics, and the Pacific Pivot
How a 30 year ISA Mining Code process, the Nauru 2 year rule, the Trump April 2025 executive order on DSHMRA permitting, and Norway's January 2025 1 year delay reshape the deep sea mining option for critical minerals strategists.
Deep sea mining sits at an unusual hinge in 2026. The International Seabed Authority has run a regulatory process for more than 30 years without finalizing exploitation rules, the July 2023 Nauru 2 year trigger has lapsed without a Mining Code, and the July 2025 Council session in Kingston again failed to close the text. The United States...