Policy impact modeling
2026-04-26
11 min read
12 sources
Moldova on the EU Track: Accession Mechanics Past the 2024 Vote, Reform Capacity Toward 2030
Maia Sandu's November 2024 reelection and the razor-thin October 20 EU referendum opened a four-year window in which Moldova must absorb cluster-by-cluster screening, deploy the EUR 1.9 billion Reform and Growth Facility envelope, and resolve the Transnistria-Gazprom geometry without losing macro-fiscal stability.
Moldova exited 2024 with two thin majorities and one open question. On October 20, 2024, the constitutional referendum on EU accession passed with 50.35 percent yes against 49.65 percent no, a margin of roughly 10,300 votes, and Maia Sandu led the presidential first round at 42.49 percent against Alexandr Stoianoglo at 25.95 percent. The ...