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Mongolia 2026: Oyu Tolgoi underground, Tavan Tolgoi coal, and the third neighbor hedge
Oyu Tolgoi is on a glide path to 500 thousand tonnes of copper a year by 2028. Tavan Tolgoi shipped a record 26.1 million tonnes of coal in 2024, more than 90 percent of it to China. Ulaanbaatar is using the resulting fiscal space to widen the third neighbor diplomacy with Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul, while keeping the Power of Siberia 2 file open. The squeeze is real: an enlarged 126 seat parliament, a 12.0 percent Chinggis bond coupon, and one buyer for almost every export cargo.
Mongolia entered 2026 with the strongest mining cash flow profile in its history. Oyu Tolgoi began sustainable underground production on March 13, 2023, and Rio Tinto reported 169 thousand tonnes of copper in concentrate from the mine in calendar 2024. Phase ramp targets 500 thousand tonnes a year on average from 2028 to 2030, which would...
Russia and China Gas in 2026: Power of Siberia 1 Ramps, Power of Siberia 2 Stalls, and the New Eastern Pricing Reality
Power of Siberia 1 is approaching contractual capacity, Power of Siberia 2 is hostage to a Gazprom and CNPC pricing impasse, and the loss of European volumes has shifted Moscow into a structurally weaker eastern bargain.
Russian pipeline gas to China is on track to fill the 38 bcm Power of Siberia 1 contract through 2026, with 2024 deliveries near 31 bcm and 2025 estimates approaching design capacity. The proposed 50 bcm Power of Siberia 2 line via Mongolia is stalled at FID by a pricing standoff with CNPC, Mongolian transit terms, and Beijing's preferenc...
Mongolia Copper: Oyu Tolgoi Underground as the 2026 Swing Factor
Oyu Tolgoi underground reaches commercial cadence in 2026, lifting Mongolia into the top tier of copper exporters and reshaping its fiscal, FX, and political risk profile.
Mongolia is on track to become a top five copper concentrate exporter by 2028, propelled by the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) underground panel cave operated by Rio Tinto. Sustained underground production began in March 2023 and is ramping toward a steady-state plateau of roughly 500,000 tonnes per year of contained copper from 2028 to 2036. For 2026, ...