Energy and transition economics
2026-04-26
11 minute read
18 sources
The grid wakes up: AI demand, FERC 1920, and the PJM, MISO interconnection cliff
After two decades of flat US electricity demand, AI driven data center load is forcing a transmission and capacity build that the queue, the auctions, and the courts were not designed to deliver. The 2026 to 2030 window is where the gap closes or the bills break.
US electricity demand is growing again. The Energy Information Administration's Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) for 2025 projects retail sales growth of roughly 2 percent year on year, against a 2014 to 2023 average closer to 0.4 percent. The PJM 2025 to 2026 capacity auction cleared at 14.7 billion dollars, up from 2.2 billion the year ...