Macro-financial risk
2026-04-26
10 minute read
16 sources
Sri Lanka After AKD: Post-IMF Debt Sustainability and the NPP Supermajority Through 2026
Anura Kumara Dissanayake won the September 21, 2024 presidential runoff with 42.3 percent and the JVP-led National People's Power coalition swept 159 of 225 parliamentary seats on November 14, 2024. The Eurobond exchange closed in December 2024, IMF EFF reviews are on track, GDP rebounded 5.5 percent in 2024, and CPI sat at 1.6 percent year on year by December 2024. The question for 2026 is whether the new sovereign curve, the China bilateral residual, and a politically untested fiscal anchor can hold.
Sri Lanka exited its 2022 default through a sequence that pairs the strongest electoral mandate in the country's post-independence history with the most front-loaded IMF Extended Fund Facility in South Asian memory. President Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), elected on September 21, 2024 in a second-round count after no candidate cleared 5...