Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Big Tech Antitrust 2026: From Liability to Remedy
Five active US monopolization cases, EU DMA enforcement entering year two, and a global remedy convergence around interoperability mean the operative question is no longer whether platforms will be constrained but how the constraints reprice equity, M&A, and capex.
The 2024 and 2025 dockets converted a decade of platform competition theory into operative law. Judge Amit Mehta's August 2024 liability ruling in United States v. Google held that Google's exclusive default search agreements with Apple, Mozilla, and Android OEMs violated Section 2 of the Sherman Act, 15 USC 2, and the April 2025 remedies...
Brussels Switches On the AI Act: What 2 August 2026 Actually Changes
The high-risk obligations of Regulation 2024/1689 come into force this August, the AI Office begins its first GPAI audits, and twenty-seven national regulators arrive at the starting line at very different speeds.
The EU AI Act entered force on 1 August 2024 with a phased calendar that has now reached the most consequential threshold. Prohibitions on social scoring and untargeted scraping for facial recognition databases applied from 2 February 2025. General-purpose AI obligations under Article 53 applied from 2 August 2025. On 2 August 2026 the hi...
Stablecoin demand for US Treasuries in 2026: bills, repo, and the GENIUS Act perimeter
GENIUS Act implementation, Tether and Circle reserve attestations, and Treasury official statements have made dollar stablecoins a structural buyer of short bills. We size the bid, decompose maturity holdings, and stress test the redemption channel.
Aggregate dollar stablecoin supply has crossed roughly 220 billion in early 2026, with reserves now overwhelmingly concentrated in Treasury bills inside three months and overnight repo collateralized by Treasuries. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act, signed into law in July 2025, locked in a 1:1 cash...
US Regional Banking 2026: Consolidation, Basel Endgame, and the CRE Wall
Three years after Silicon Valley Bank, the regional bank franchise has stabilized, the Capital One and Discover deal closed, and the Basel III Endgame final rule is law. The unfinished work is commercial real estate.
The US regional banking system enters 2026 in a different shape than the one that broke in March 2023. Capital One closed its 35 billion dollar all-stock acquisition of Discover in May 2025, the OCC and the Federal Reserve approved the deal with community reinvestment conditions, and the Basel III Endgame final rule was issued in May 2025...