Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
China 2025 to 2026: The Fiscal-Monetary Pivot, the Tariff Shock, and the Five Percent Defense
Beijing has finally moved its fiscal stance, the People's Bank of China has rebuilt its rate corridor, and a 10 trillion yuan local debt swap is buying time for the provinces. The Trump tariff floor decides whether the package holds the 5 percent target or merely cushions a slower trajectory.
The March 2025 National People's Congress ratified a deficit target of 4 percent of GDP, the highest headline number in decades, alongside 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long Special Treasury issuance and a 10 trillion yuan local government refinancing program running through 2028. Premier Li Qiang's Two Sessions agenda paired this fiscal piv...
Gold, sanctions, and the slow erosion of the dollar reserve standard
The 2022 freezing of Russian central bank assets triggered a structural reset in how emerging market reserve managers think about safety. Three years later, official sector gold buying has stayed above 1,000 tonnes annually, the dollar share of allocated reserves has drifted to 58 percent, and the gold price has cleared $2,700 per ounce on a flow that primary dealers can no longer ignore.
Between 2022 and 2024 the official sector bought 3,164 tonnes of gold, the heaviest three year run on record. The trigger was the February 2022 freeze of roughly $300 billion of Russian central bank reserves, which reset the calculus for every reserve manager outside the G7 perimeter. The People's Bank of China, the Reserve Bank of India,...