Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
India 2026: IndusInd's Derivatives Hole, AT-1 Risk Repricing, and Private Bank Stress
A March 2025 derivatives accounting shock at IndusInd Bank, layered over an unfinished HDFC merger digestion, an NBFC microfinance correction, and post Yes Bank and post Credit Suisse memory in the AT-1 market, defines the Indian private banking risk surface through 2026.
On March 10, 2025, IndusInd Bank disclosed an internal review that flagged discrepancies in the accounting of internal derivative trades against its foreign currency borrowings and deposits, with a one time post tax impact estimated at roughly INR 1,979 crore, around 2.35 percent of the bank's December 2024 net worth. The stock fell about...
India Modi 3.0: Coalition Arithmetic, Two Budgets, and the FY27 Reform Window
The BJP at 240 seats forced the first genuine NDA coalition since 1999. Two Union Budgets in eight months reset the fiscal anchor at 4.4 percent of GDP, recalibrated capex from INR 11.11 trillion to INR 11.21 trillion, and shifted the income tax threshold to INR 12 lakh, all while RBI cut Repo by 50 basis points into the food inflation overhang.
Narendra Modi returned to office on June 9, 2024, with the BJP holding 240 Lok Sabha seats, 32 short of a single-party majority and the worst Treasury bench result since 2009. The NDA coalition now depends on Chandrababu Naidu's TDP at 16 seats and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) at 12 seats, both leaders with prior records of switching sides. Finan...
India RBI Pivot 2026: Inflation Glide, Malhotra Easing Cycle, and the JPM GBI Bond Re-rating
Sanjay Malhotra inherited the repo rate at 6.50 percent on December 11, 2024 and delivered the first rate cut since May 2020 on February 7, 2025. With CPI at 3.61 percent in February 2025, USD 25 to 30 billion of JPM GBI EM index inflows reshaping the bond bid, and INR pinned at record lows, the question is no longer whether India eases, but how far the curve and the rupee allow it to go.
On December 11, 2024 Sanjay Malhotra succeeded Shaktikanta Das as the 26th RBI Governor, replacing the architect of the 2020 to 2024 inflation regime at the moment headline CPI peaked at 6.21 percent in October 2024 on a tomato, onion, and potato shock. By February 2025 the food spike had reversed with the kharif harvest, headline CPI fel...