Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Global wheat 2026: Russia's 47 Mt export apex, Egypt's GASC reform, and the post Black Sea Initiative trade map
USDA's April 2026 WASDE places 2025/26 world wheat output at roughly 795 million tonnes against ending stocks of 261 million tonnes, the tightest stocks to use since 2013. Russia, India, and Australia anchor supply. Egypt and the broader MENA bloc carry the fiscal exposure.
Global wheat enters the 2026 marketing year with stocks lower than at any point since the 2012/13 crop. USDA WASDE places 2025/26 production near 795 million tonnes and ending stocks at 261 million tonnes, with the bulk of the cushion held in China, India, and Russia, none of which exports freely. Russia's 2024/25 harvest of about 82 Mt a...
West Africa Wheat Shock 2026: Import Dependence, Fiscal Pass-Through, and Political Risk
How a tightening Black Sea balance, a rigid Russian export quota cycle, and weakening CFA and naira positions are reshaping bread economics from Dakar to Abuja.
West Africa enters the second quarter of 2026 with the highest wheat import bill in its history, driven by a thinner Black Sea exportable surplus, a punitive Russian quota cycle running from February to June, and weakening local currencies. Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso together import roughly 13 to 14 million t...
Food-shock propagation in 2026: from CPI to political risk
A 25 percent move in wheat, rice, or sugar in 2026 reaches household budgets in eight import-dependent countries within 90 days, blows out fiscal subsidy lines within six months, and shows up as street pressure inside a year. The propagation chain is mappable.
A 2026 food shock has three plausible origins: a Black Sea wheat disruption, an Indian rice export ban extension, or a Brazilian and Indian sugar squeeze tied to ethanol diversion and cane yield loss. Each origin moves through the same five-stage chain: futures markets, freight and FX, landed import prices, domestic CPI, and fiscal subsid...