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Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Algeria 2026: Europe's pipeline pivot, Sonatrach's USD 50 billion bet, and the Maghreb realignment
After Russia, Algeria is now the second largest pipeline gas supplier to the European Union. Tebboune's second term, the Sonatrach 2027 to 2030 capex cycle, and the Western Sahara realignment with Paris will define whether Algiers can hold that position through 2030.
Algeria has moved from a marginal European supplier to the bloc's second largest pipeline gas source by 2024, displacing roughly half of pre war Russian flows into Italy. Sonatrach reported total gas exports of 91 billion cubic meters in 2024, with 26.4 bcm via TransMed to Italy and 8.0 bcm via Medgaz to Spain. The Gazoduc Maghreb Europe ...
Italy Year Four: Meloni's Fiscal Compression and the PNRR Endgame
Deficit narrowing under the Excessive Deficit Procedure, a final PNRR sprint to August 2026, and a banking and industrial reshuffle that locks in or unwinds the credibility premium Rome has banked since 2022.
Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy government enters its fourth year with the rarest of Italian outcomes: a tightening sovereign spread alongside a coalition still intact. The headline deficit, which printed at 7.4 percent of GDP in 2023 under the residual cost of the Superbonus 110 building credit, is on track to land near 3.4 percent in...