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Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Crypto in 2026: ETFs, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and the Institutional Rewrite
Spot ETF plumbing, a presidential reserve order, fair-value accounting, and a permissive SEC have moved bitcoin and ether from the alt allocation column into the boundary of conventional treasury and capital markets practice.
Bitcoin and crypto institutional adoption crossed a structural threshold between 2024 and 2026. Spot bitcoin ETFs cleared roughly USD 145 billion in cumulative assets under management by the end of the first quarter of 2026, with BlackRock's IBIT alone above USD 64 billion. Ethereum spot ETFs ramped slowly after July 2024 approval and fin...
The Powell Succession: Fed Independence Under Stress in 2026
Jerome Powell's term as Chair ends on May 15, 2026. The succession contest, the legal architecture of removal, and a parallel Treasury debt management agenda will reset the price of U.S. duration, the dollar smile, and the global carry complex.
Powell's chairmanship expires on May 15, 2026, and the field of plausible successors clusters around Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, with outside cards for Marc Sumerlin, James Bullard, Larry Lindsey, and Jamie Dimon. The summer 2025 lawn tour confrontation, in which the President pressed Powell on the Ecc...
Stablecoins meet the statute: GENIUS, MiCA, and the Treasury bid in 2026
USD 230 billion of dollar pegged stablecoins now sit between bank money, money market funds, and the US Treasury bill curve. The GENIUS Act, signed July 18, 2025, gives the architecture a federal license and an OCC primary regulator. MiCA closed the European retail market for USDT through the second half of 2024. The question for 2026 is no longer whether stablecoins are legitimate. It is who underwrites the reserves, where the Treasury demand sits, and which payment corridors the rails actually win.
Dollar pegged stablecoins reached USD 230 billion in circulation by Q1 2026, with Tether USDT at roughly USD 142 billion and Circle USDC at roughly USD 60 billion. Tether's Q4 2024 BDO attestation reported USD 113 billion of direct and indirect US Treasury exposure, which would rank Tether around the 18th largest sovereign holder of US Tr...
The TCJA Cliff and OBBBA: US Fiscal Trajectory Through 2026
Most individual provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act sunset on December 31, 2025. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, made the bulk of those provisions permanent at a CBO-scored cost of roughly 4.5 trillion dollars over ten years. The fiscal trajectory through 2026 is now defined by debt-to-GDP, term premium, distributional incidence, and state-level conformity friction.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Public Law 115-97, scheduled most of its individual income tax provisions to sunset on December 31, 2025. The corporate side, including the 21 percent flat corporate rate, GILTI, FDII, and BEAT, was made permanent in 2017. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Public Law 119-21, signed by President Trump on Ju...
The term premium returns: bear steepener risk in US Treasuries through 2026
After a decade in negative territory, the New York Fed ACM term premium turned positive in late 2023 and has stayed there. With quantitative tightening still draining duration, the bills share above the TBAC band, and net interest costs on track to surpass Medicare, the long end is again a price taker on supply. We decompose the 10 year yield, size the risks, and lay out the bear steepener playbook.
The 10 year nominal Treasury yield decomposes into expected real short rates, expected inflation, and the term premium. From 2017 through 2022, the New York Fed ACM term premium model printed deeply negative readings, bottoming near minus 150 basis points in March 2020. Beginning in late 2023 the premium turned positive and reached roughl...
Bills, Coupons, and the Buyer Rotation: How Treasury Finances a USD 2 Trillion Deficit in 2026
The Treasury runs a roughly USD 28 trillion debt stock and a USD 2 trillion fiscal deficit through 2026 with rising bills share, the foreign buyer base flattening, and the Fed runoff at residual pace. The marginal-buyer question now sits with stablecoins, money funds, and US households.
United States Treasury debt held by the public crossed USD 28 trillion in early 2025 and tracks toward USD 30 trillion by year end 2026 on Congressional Budget Office baselines. The fiscal year 2025 deficit settled near USD 1.85 trillion; FY2026 baseline runs USD 2.0 to 2.1 trillion before any IEEPA tariff revenue or expiring TCJA provisi...