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Egypt at the Anchor: IMF EFF Year Two, the Ras El Hekma Cushion, and the Suez and Military Economy Reset
The March 6, 2024 IMF program expansion to USD 8 billion and the USD 35 billion Ras El Hekma sale to ADQ rebuilt Egypt's external buffer and broke the FX peg, but Suez Canal revenue collapsed 60 percent, debt service consumes more than half of revenue, and the military economy reform agenda remains the binding constraint.
On March 6, 2024 the IMF Executive Board augmented Egypt's Extended Fund Facility from USD 3 billion to USD 8 billion and the Central Bank of Egypt floated the pound, devaluing it from roughly 30 to 50 per US dollar in a single session. Two weeks earlier, on February 23, 2024, ADQ of Abu Dhabi committed USD 35 billion for the Ras El Hekma...
Egypt 2026: Nile Water Security after GERD Completion, the Entebbe Pivot, and the Food Import Question
Ethiopia completed the fifth GERD filling in August 2024 and declared the project finished in September. With Burundi's October 2024 ratification of the Cooperative Framework Agreement, the legal and hydrological status quo behind Egypt's Nile rights is, in practice, gone.
Egypt's Nile question has shifted from a negotiation problem to an operating problem. GERD was declared complete by Ethiopia on 3 September 2024 after the fifth reservoir filling, with four of thirteen turbines online by April 2026 toward a 6.45 GW installed capacity. African Union mediation collapsed in late 2023. The Cooperative Framewo...