Macro-financial risk
2026-04-26
10 minute read
10 sources
Iran 2026: Pezeshkian, the Trump JCPOA-2 Track, and the Proliferation Fiscal Nexus
Tehran sits on roughly 280 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, a collapsing rial, and a reformist president whose mandate from Khamenei is narrow. Witkoff's negotiating channel is open, snapback has fired, and the next deal will be priced as much by fiscal arithmetic as by centrifuge counts.
Iran enters the second quarter of 2026 inside three converging crises that any JCPOA-2 track must price together. The IAEA February 2026 verification report records roughly 280 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. Maximum pressure sanctions reimposed in the first quarter of 2025 have cut crude exports from peaks near 1.6 million b...