Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Iraq Oil Fiscal 2026: The SOMO Barrel, the Sudani Wage Bill, and a Pipeline Still Closed
Federal oil exports near 3.4 million barrels per day, a wage bill above 50 percent of spending, the Ceyhan line shut three years after the ICC ruling. The 2026 question: can the tri-year framework survive sub 70 dollar Brent.
Iraq closed 2025 with federal crude exports near 3.40 million barrels per day on SOMO data and a fiscal break-even Brent the IMF estimates at 92 dollars, well above the 71 dollar 2025 average. The Iraq Turkey Pipeline has been shut thirty seven months since the March 2023 ICC award of 1.49 billion dollars against Turkey, stranding 250,000...
Saudi Arabia 2026: the Vision 2030 reset, the PIF reprioritization, and the budget arithmetic at USD 78 Brent
Nine years into Vision 2030, Riyadh is sequencing rather than retreating. PIF holds approximately USD 940 billion in assets, the 2025 budget commits SAR 1.342 trillion in expenditure, and the IMF estimates the fiscal breakeven oil price at USD 96 per barrel. The Line has been scoped down from 105 miles to 1.5 miles by 2030. The question is no longer whether the giga projects deliver in full, but which ones survive the reset.
Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 is at the nine year mark, and the official posture has shifted from maximalist scope to disciplined sequencing. The Public Investment Fund reported total assets under management of approximately USD 940 billion at end 2024, against the original 2030 target of USD 2 trillion that has effectively been deferred. Th...
US shale 2026: capital discipline, the Permian endgame, and the OPEC+ price ceiling
American light tight oil production touched 13.4 million barrels per day in December 2024 and the EIA STEO projects 14.0 mbd in 2026. The growth case rests on the Permian, on a smaller and more productive rig fleet, and on the willingness of consolidated operators to keep returning cash rather than chase volume. Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut unwind through September 2026 puts a soft ceiling on WTI in the mid USD 60s, exactly where new well economics break.
US crude output set a record at 13.4 mbd in December 2024 (EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly), with the Permian Basin alone supplying about 6.4 mbd or roughly 48 percent of national volume. The EIA Short Term Energy Outlook (March 2025) projects 13.6 mbd in 2025 and 14.0 mbd in 2026. Production grew on a falling rig count: Baker Hughes registe...