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Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Australia 2026: Iron Ore Margins, the RBA Pivot, and the Housing Question
Iron ore prices have rolled off their long term average, lithium is in plant level retreat, the Reserve Bank is cutting into a still tight labor market, and a Sydney median above 1.6 million dollars is rewriting the political contract between retirees and renters.
Australia enters 2026 with two divergent stories. Iron ore on the Singapore Exchange platform is trading at 90 to 110 USD per tonne 62 percent Fe FOB China against a 120 USD long term average, while lithium spodumene operators have placed Greenbushes, Wodgina, Mt Holland, and the IGO Cosmos asset on care, curtailment, or production guidan...
Copper and the Electrification Supercycle: Why 2026 Breaks the Bear Case
Codelco below 1.4 million tonnes, Cobre Panama still cold, AI grid copper at 3 to 4 kg per kW, and Chinese smelter TC/RC at zero. The supply side is losing its argument.
The copper market enters 2026 with a supply book structurally short of the demand it has signed up to serve. Codelco is guiding sub 1.4 million tonnes of mined output, the lowest since 1998, while Freeport's Grasberg is past peak grade, BHP's Escondida is grinding through head grade decay, and Glencore's Collahuasi expansion remains stall...
Ecuador's Mano Dura at the Inflection: Noboa's Security Doctrine, Energy Squeeze, and the 2026 Outlook
President Daniel Noboa's internal armed conflict declaration, the April 2025 runoff mandate, and the homicide reversal from 47 to 31 per 100,000 reframe Ecuador as a Pacific cocaine choke point with stranded oil and hydropower fragility.
Ecuador moved from peripheral cocaine corridor to Pacific epicenter between 2017 and 2023, with the homicide rate climbing from 6 to 47 per 100,000 (Ministerio del Interior). On January 9, 2024, President Daniel Noboa decreed an internal armed conflict and designated 22 organized crime groups as terrorist actors, including Los Choneros, L...
The Lithium Price Collapse: Marginal Cost, Demand Drift, and the 2027 Floor
Lithium carbonate fell 87 percent from the November 2022 peak and has spent five quarters bouncing along the Australian spodumene cost cliff. The recovery path now depends on Chinese converter discipline, BEV demand growth that is decelerating in every major region, and a direct lithium extraction pipeline that has slipped two years.
Battery grade lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) priced on a CIF Asia basis collapsed from 84,000 dollars per tonne in November 2022 to 10,500 dollars in early 2024, then traded in a 10,000 to 13,000 dollar band through Q1 2026. The price is now sitting on the marginal cost of Chinese converter feedstock processed from Australian spodumen...
Peru Mining 2026: Copper Supply, Social Conflict, and the Tax Regime Test
Peru sits at the hinge of the global copper market. Las Bambas blockades, a recalibrated royalty regime, and the second-derivative of Chinese demand will decide whether 2.7 million tonnes is a floor or a ceiling for 2026 output.
Peru is the world's second largest copper producer and the marginal swing supplier into a market that the IEA, Wood Mackenzie, and the LME term-structure all describe as structurally tight through 2028. The country's 2026 trajectory hinges on three variables that rarely move in the same direction: mine site stability across the southern c...
Peru Mining Under Boluarte: Political Risk Through the 2026 Election Cycle
President Dina Boluarte enters her last full year of office with single digit approval, a fragmented Congress, and a copper sector that the state cannot afford to disturb. The April 2026 first round and June 2026 runoff will reset the rules under which Las Bambas, Quellaveco, and the Tia Maria pipeline operate.
Peru is the world's second largest copper producer at roughly 2.6 million tonnes per year, and its political settlement is the variable that decides whether the next administration can hold the line. President Dina Boluarte governs with approval near 5 percent, a Congress that has rejected three constitutional vacancia motions, and a memo...
South Africa Logistics Reset: Transnet, the GNU, and the 2026 Recovery Path
Transnet Freight Rail volumes fell from 226 million tonnes in fiscal 2018 to 152 million in fiscal 2024. The Government of National Unity has to convert the 2022 National Rail Policy and Operation Vulindlela into a credible third party access regime by 2027.
South African logistics is the most expensive drag on the export economy, and the binding constraint is Transnet. Transnet Freight Rail moved 226.3 million tonnes in fiscal 2018, fell to 149.5 million tonnes in fiscal 2023, and recovered modestly to 151.7 million tonnes in fiscal 2024. The Sishen to Saldanha iron ore channel shipped 50.4 ...
West Africa iron ore 2026: Simandou first ore, ArcelorMittal Liberia, and the rail port economics that decide the corridor
Simandou begins shipping in late 2025 and ramps to 60 mtpa by 2028. ArcelorMittal Liberia is rebuilding the Yekepa to Buchanan corridor toward 30 mtpa. The two projects, plus Marampa in Sierra Leone, will reset the 65 percent Fe seaborne pool that China's electric arc furnace transition needs.
Simandou in southeast Guinea holds 2.4 billion tonnes of high grade iron ore at roughly 65 percent Fe, the largest untapped deposit of its quality in the world. The Simfer joint venture (Rio Tinto 53 percent, Winning Consortium Simandou 47 percent across blocks 1 and 2, with Chinalco and Baowu participating) committed USD 11.6 billion in ...
Mongolia Copper: Oyu Tolgoi Underground as the 2026 Swing Factor
Oyu Tolgoi underground reaches commercial cadence in 2026, lifting Mongolia into the top tier of copper exporters and reshaping its fiscal, FX, and political risk profile.
Mongolia is on track to become a top five copper concentrate exporter by 2028, propelled by the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) underground panel cave operated by Rio Tinto. Sustained underground production began in March 2023 and is ramping toward a steady-state plateau of roughly 500,000 tonnes per year of contained copper from 2028 to 2036. For 2026, ...